New Energy Model Offers Transparency to Let Others Replicate Findings

Aug. 27, 2013 — Computer models are used to
inform policy decisions about energy, but
existing models are generally "black boxes"
that don't show how they work, making it
impossible for anyone to replicate their
findings. Researchers from North Carolina
State University have developed a new open-
source model and are sharing the data they
put into it, to allow anyone to check their
work -- an important advance given the
environmental and economic impact of energy
policy decisions.

"Most models show you the math behind how
they work, but don't share the source code
that is supposed to implement that math -- so
you can't tell how faithful the model is to the
mathematics," says Dr. Joseph DeCarolis, an
assistant professor of civil, construction and
environmental engineering at NC State and co-
author of a paper on the new model. "And the
people utilizing existing models often don't
share the data they use. So, in effect, you can't
check their work.

"That's a problem, because the results of those
models are informing policy decisions with
billions of dollars on the line."
The new open-source model, called Temoa, is
an energy economy optimization (EEO) model.
EEO models are computer models that inform
policy and industry decisions by offering
insights into how energy costs and production
are likely to change over time.

For example,

EEO models could be used to identify strategies
that would drive down energy costs and
reduce greenhouse gas emissions over the next
10, 20 or 30 years.
DeCarolis's team designed Temoa to be flexible,
allowing users to look at any timeframe and on
any scale, from a global model to a model of a
single city. They also designed Temoa to be
more rigorous than existing models when it
comes to addressing uncertainty. Specifically,
they plan to combine multiple forms of
analysis to give policymakers more information
on the potential impact of specific policy
alternatives.

Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided
by North Carolina State University.
And ( sciencedaily magzine )

Journal Reference:

1. Kevin Hunter, Sarat Sreepathi, Joseph F.
DeCarolis. Modeling for insight using Tools
for Energy Model Optimization and Analysis
(Temoa) . Energy Economics, 2013; 40: 339
DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2013.07.014