New Light Shed On Cause of Pandemic Influenza

July 24, 2013 — With the use of sophisticated
mathematical modelling techniques, a
mathematician at PolyU and his co-researchers
have completed a study that explains the
phenomenon of multiple waves of influenza
pandemic in the last century.
With the use of sophisticated mathematical
modelling techniques, a mathematician at The
Hong Kong Polytechnic University (PolyU) and
his co-researchers have completed a study that
explains the phenomenon of multiple waves of
influenza pandemic in the last century.

Taking part in this advanced study is Dr Daihai
He, Assistant Professor of PolyU's Department
of Applied Mathematics. He has collaborated
with four researchers in Canada to offer an
explanation to the worst influenza pandemic in
the history of humankind. The research team
found that behavioural response has the
largest impact among three primary factors
causing the waves, thus paving the way for
future enhancement on control strategies to
the spread of influenza virus.

The 1918 flu epidemic was one of the world's
deadliest natural disasters, causing the death of
hundred thousands of people. Influenza
pandemic appears to be characterized by
multiple waves of incidence in one year, but
the mechanism that explains this phenomenon
has so far been elusive.

In explaining the deadly pandemic, Dr Daihai
He and his teammates have incorporated in
their mathematical model three contributing
factors for multiple waves of influenza
pandemic in England and Wales: (i) schools
opening and closing, (ii) temperature changes
during the outbreak, and (iii) changes in
human behaviour in response to the outbreak.

Dr He and the researchers further applied this
model to the reported influenza mortality
during the 1918 pandemic in 334 British
administrative units and estimate the
epidemiological parameters. They have used
information criteria to evaluate how well these
three factors explain the observed patterns of
mortality. The results indicate that all three
factors are important, but behavioural
responses had the largest effect.
The findings have recently been published in
the journal Proceedings of the Royal Society
Biological Sciences (July 2013 Issue).

Dr He's
expertise in advanced mathematics and
statistics has helped improve our
understanding of the spread of influenza virus
at the population level and lead to improved
strategies to control and minimize the spread
of influenza virus.

Story Source:

The above story is based on materials provided
by The Hong Kong Polytechnic University .
Note: Materials may be edited for content and
length. For further information, please contact
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Journal Reference:

1. D. He, J. Dushoff, T. Day, J. Ma, D. J. D. Earn.
Inferring the causes of the three waves of
the 1918 influenza pandemic in England
and Wales. Proceedings of the Royal Society
B: Biological Sciences , 2013; 280 (1766):
20131345 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2013.1345